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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Bettmann/Getty Contributor

The 2020 election marks the first time in history that Latinos will be the largest minority ethnic or racial group in the electorate, with 32 million eligible voters.

Why it matters: A surge in Latino voters could help Democrats up and down the ballot. But since 1996, most eligible Latino voters have not voted in presidential elections, according to the Pew Research Center.

  • "The perpetual problem for Democrats in regards to Hispanic voters remains: converting potential votes into actual votes," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

By the numbers: There are an estimated 15–18 million Latino people in the U.S. who are not registered to vote. Roughly 4 million turned 18 after the 2016 election.

But Latino voter participation is growing — 27% who voted in the midterms said it was their first time.

  • Almost half of eligible Latino voters were never even contacted by a political party or candidate, yet 79% voted in 2018, said María Teresa Kumar, founding president and CEO of Voto Latino.
  • 69% cast a ballot for a Democrat.

What to watch: Texas — which Democrats are desperate to turn blue — accounts for 25% (2.5 million) of eligible but unregistered young Latino voters, per Kumar. It's one state where first-time Latino voters have the ability to sway 2020 election results.

  • The other side: "There is always the possibility that Republicans will continue to struggle with nonwhite voters, but can make up for that by pulling an even higher share of the white vote," Kondik said, particularly in competitive Midwestern states that are whiter than the national average.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
20 mins ago - Energy & Environment

The energy crises roiling Europe and China — and beyond

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Energy crises in Europe and China are spilling into economic forecasts, supply chains and beyond.

Driving the news: Europe has for weeks been facing sky-high natural gas and power prices, while China — the world's second-largest economy — is facing electricity shortages that are hobbling factories.

Americans' concern about climate hits all-time highs

The flooded Major Deegan Expressway following a night of heavy rain from remnants of Hurricane Ida on Sept. 2, 2021, in New York City. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

After disaster-filled summer, a record number of Americans are concerned about global warming, according to a new poll from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Driving the news: The number of Americans who said they are “very” or “somewhat worried” about global warming has reached an all-time high of 70%, the Yale group found as part of a survey it has been conducting since 2008.

Senators grill top Pentagon leaders over Biden's Afghanistan exit

Photo: Carolone Brehman/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, and the head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Frank McKenzie, are testifying publicly this week for the first time since the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Why it matters: The Pentagon's top leaders have come under intense scrutiny over the series of disasters that followed the U.S. exit, including the Taliban's seizure of Kabul, the ISIS-K terrorist attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and scores of Afghans in August, and a retaliatory U.S. drone strike that killed 10 civilians.