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2020 Democratic candidates in Columbia, S.C., on Jan 20. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

With the "phase one" trade deal signed, major asset managers have taken their eyes off the trade war a bit and begun to focus on the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Why it matters: The outcome of November's election is now investors' top concern, according to the results of Bank of America Securities' latest global fund manager survey.

  • The trade war dropped to the No. 2 concern among respondents for the first time since May, while worries about a "bond bubble" popping rose to the No. 3 worry.

Watch this space: A number of recent analyses have found that the stock market is currently showing some irrational exuberance, but BofA's model shows "investors are bullish but not euphoric,” chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said in a note.

  • The level of cash holdings has not yet reached the point that would signal excessive "greed," and overweight positions in stocks remain well below levels that signal concern.

Of note: Inflation expectations rose 14 percentage points from last month to net 56% of participants, the highest level since November 2018.

  • 19% of fund managers surveyed think the global economy will experience above-trend growth and below-trend inflation; 62% continue to expect below-trend growth and inflation.
  • Global corporate profit expectations jumped 14 percentage points from December, with a net 27% of respondents saying they expect profits to improve over the next 12 months, the highest level since March 2018.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Tech scrambles to derail inauguration threats

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Tech companies are sharing more information with law enforcement in a frantic effort to prevent violence around the inauguration, after the government was caught flat-footed by the Capitol siege.

Between the lines: Tech knows it will be held accountable for any further violence that turns out to have been planned online if it doesn't act to stop it.

Dave Lawler, author of World
5 hours ago - World

Uganda's election: Museveni declared winner, Wine claims fraud

Wine rejected the official results of the election. Photo: Sumy Sadruni/AFP via Getty

Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of a sixth presidential term on Saturday, with official results giving him 59% to 35% for Bobi Wine, the singer-turned-opposition leader.

Why it matters: This announcement was predictable, as the election was neither free nor fair and Museveni had no intention of surrendering power after 35 years. But Wine — who posed a strong challenged to Museveni, particularly in urban areas, and was beaten and arrested during the campaign — has said he will present evidence of fraud. The big question is whether he will mobilize mass resistance in the streets.

Off the Rails

Episode 1: A premeditated lie lit the fire

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. Axios takes you inside the collapse of a president with a special series.

Episode 1: Trump’s refusal to believe the election results was premeditated. He had heard about the “red mirage” — the likelihood that early vote counts would tip more Republican than the final tallies — and he decided to exploit it.

"Jared, you call the Murdochs! Jason, you call Sammon and Hemmer!”