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GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Since 1982, Republican incumbents have been defeated at twice the rate of Democrats in over 600 Senate races, according to research by Nicholas Goedert, political science professor at Virginia Tech.

Why it matters: This new analysis on incumbent resiliency could give hope to Democrats, who are defending 10 Senate seats in states Trump won this cycle. But more research needs to be done to figure out the nuanced reasons why this pattern has happened.

The other side: As Goedert writes, "The allocation of two Senate seats regardless of state population, giving disproportionate power to small states, seems naturally stacked against the Democratic Party."

Between the lines: Open seats are traditionally easier to flip than those with an incumbent. Republicans have won 60% of open Senate seats in that same time — even when Democrats held it previously.

By the numbers: Of the 238 seats with a Democratic incumbent, a Democrat only lost 19 of them (8% turnover rate). For the 249 held by Republicans, the GOP lost 39 seats (a 16% turnover).

  • Goedert also found a 3-point difference in vote share between Democratic and Republican incumbents over the last three decades.
  • The 611 races analyzed includes six elections for each Senate seat, as well as a handful of special elections.
  • Republicans won 30 of the 67 open seats previously held by Democrats; Democrats flipped just 14 of the 57 previously held by the GOP.

What to watch: The 2018 election and whether those 10 red-state Democrats can follow this trend.

Go deeper

2 hours ago - Health

Pfizer says COVID vaccine over 90% effective in kids

A health care worker preparing a Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine dose in New York City on Oct. 21. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Pfizer and BioNTech said their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective at protecting children between the ages of 5 and 11 from symptomatic infections from the virus, according to a study posted online by the Food and Drug Administration Friday.

Why it matters: Pfizer is seeking an emergency use authorization to vaccinate children — one of the last groups of Americans still largely ineligible to receive a coronavirus vaccine.

Changing the inflation conversation

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Inflation looks like it’ll run hot for longer than plenty of smart people thought it would. The conversation over just how much more Americans will have to pay for their stuff has taken on a new intensity, as supply problems show few signs of fading.

Why it matters: The rate of price growth has remained consistently strong in recent months — a time that some thought would bring cooling prices after an initial reopening spike. What goes on with prices will influence the decisions made by Congress, the Biden Administration, and the Federal Reserve.

The biggest headline from Biden's town hall

President Biden greets attendees during a commercial break in Baltimore last night. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

What matters from President Biden's town hall with CNN's Anderson Cooper at Baltimore Center Stage on Thursday:

The biggest headline: Biden is jettisoning the corporate tax increases that White House officials have insisted, for the past 10 months, are wildly popular across the country. He admitted he doesn't have the votes.