House Speaker Paul Ryan. Photo: Astrid Riecken/Getty Images

Republicans say some congressional races are moving back in their direction in the last few weeks, according to conversations with six GOP strategists, pollsters, and operatives.

The big picture: There are four new races to watch based on an internal memo by the Congressional Leadership Fund, and which were independently mentioned by the other GOP sources.

  • Nebraska's 2nd district, where CLF polling shows Republican Don Bacon leading Democrat Kara Eastman by 11 points.
  • Republican Pete Stauber is leading by eight points in Minnesota's 8th district, Democrats' most vulnerable seat this cycle.
  • Iowa's 1st district, which has been considered a competitive race for the GOP, now shows Rep. Rod Blum ahead by four points.
  • Florida's 27th district, where GOP sources say Democrat Donna Shalala has been a weak candidate, which gives them renewed hope. Republican Maria Elvira Salazar is now tied in CLF polling, and the NRCC took $1 million from vulnerable Rep. Mike Coffman's district in Colorado to invest in this Florida race.

Between the lines: Cook rates the first two races as "lean Republican," but Iowa's 1st is rated as "lean Democratic" and Florida's 27th is considered a "Republican tossup."

The other side: There are certainly factors favoring Democrats, like a record number of open seats, which are easier to flip, and Republicans running in districts where Trump's approval is underwater.

One more thing: A Republican strategist said Pennsylvania's 8th district is "the only pickup opportunity we have against an incumbent Democrat," adding that the new district, created after the state's congressional map was redrawn, went to Trump by almost 10 points in 2016. But the strategist then said Republican John Chrin has been down in their internal polling.

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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

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Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Scoop: Mike Bloomberg's anti-chaos theory

CNN's Anderson Cooper questions Joe Biden last night at a drive-in town hall in Moosic, Pa., outside Scranton. Photo: CNN

Mike Bloomberg's $100 million Florida blitz begins today and will continue "wall to wall" in all 10 TV markets through Election Day, advisers tell me.

Why it matters: Bloomberg thinks that Joe Biden putting away Florida is the most feasible way to head off the national chaos we could have if the outcome of Trump v. Biden remained uncertain long after Election Day.

Biden's hardline Russia reset

Photo Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Getty Images photos: Mark Reinstein

When he talks about Russia, Joe Biden has sounded like Ronald Reagan all summer, setting up a potential Day 1 confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin if Biden were to win.

Why it matters: Biden has promised a forceful response against Russia for both election interference and alleged bounty payments to target American troops in Afghanistan. But being tougher than President Trump could be the easy part. The risk is overdoing it and making diplomacy impossible.