Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

FiveThirtyEight projects Democrats have an 87% chance of taking the House and Republicans have an 83% chance of winning the Senate.

Why it matters: This split has the potential to dramatically shift things for the Democratic senators with an eye on running for president in 2020.

  • Congressional gridlock and a risk of things like government shutdowns will be imminent, as a Democrat-led House tosses things to their colleagues in a GOP-controlled Senate who won't have the votes to pass them.
  • That could inspire some Democratic members to be open to more compromise and less confrontation with the other side, which would change the tribal 2020 calculus that we see building right now.
  • And the Democratic apparatus could be extinguished in places like Montana and Indiana if those red-state Democrats lose, giving little hope and resources to Democrats hoping to win Senate (and, in Indiana, gubernatorial) races in the future.

What to watch: Geography literally laid the battleground for the 2018 midterms. The two types of candidates who faced the biggest battles this cycle were Democratic senators in Trump country and House Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won. What happens in those areas tonight will lay the 2020 battleground, too.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
39 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Wall Street fears stimulus is doomed

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The fight over a new Supreme Court justice will take Washington's partisan bickering to a new level and undermine any chance for needed coronavirus relief measures before November's election, Wall Street analysts say.

What we're hearing: "With the passing of Justice Ginsburg, the level of rhetorical heat has increased, if that seemed even possible," Greg Staples, head of fixed income for the Americas at DWS Group, tells Axios in an email.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 31,346,086 — Total deaths: 965,294— Total recoveries: 21,518,790Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 6,858,130 — Total deaths: 199,890 — Total recoveries: 2,615,949 — Total tests: 95,841,281Map.
  3. Health: CDC says it mistakenly published guidance about COVID-19 spreading through air.
  4. Media: Conservative blogger who spread COVID-19 misinformation worked for Fauci's agency.
  5. Politics: House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11.
  6. World: U.K. upgrades COVID alert level as Europe sees worrying rise in infections — "The Wake-Up Call" warns the West about the consequences of mishandling a pandemic.
2 hours ago - Technology

Why Puerto Rico is still struggling to get online

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Internet connectivity remains a weak link for the disaster-wracked U.S. territory Puerto Rico, and some experts fear a new tranche of Federal Communications Commission subsidies set aside just for the island might not help the people most in need of a broadband connection.

Why it matters: Puerto Rico is locked out of most federal funding available to U.S. states to help expand internet service. The island risks being left behind as carriers expand and upgrade high-speed internet networks elsewhere, even as infrastructure-damaging tropical storms come faster and harder and the pandemic makes broadband even more of a must-have.

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