Feb 24, 2017

The bond market isn't buying Trump hype

Stocks have been on an impressive run since election day, partly as a result of strong earnings, but also on the hope that unified Republican government in Washington will deliver tax and regulatory reform, along with more infrastructure spending. Take a look at the bond market, however, and investors there aren't so optimistic about Republican policies coming to fruition.

Falling bond yields: The yields on 10-year, U.S. government debt are down on Friday, and having fallen more than 5% on the year. That investors are demanding lower returns for lending money today than they were at the start of the year suggests that they are questioning the stock market's optimism toward future growth and inflation. As Dana Emery, CEO of fixed income at Dodge & Cox tells Morningstar Magazine, "it would be a mistake to push aside all the possible missteps [Trump could make] with respect to trade, immigration, and foreign policy . . . particularly China, because those uncertainties could create very dynamic market dislocations."

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