Mar 27, 2017

Dems may have missed rural whites in 2016 polls

Mindy Schauer / The Orange County Register via AP

The white, rural voters who elevated Donald Trump to the presidency might have been underrepresented by Democratic pollsters in the lead-up to the 2016 election, forcing the party to consider how to change its methodology for the future, per Politico.

  • Two big reasons for the miss are poor cell phone service in rural areas and anti-establishment sentiment driving down poll participation.
  • Democrats likely have underrepresented these voters for some time, but that went unnoticed until 2016 when rural whites were such a key swing demographic.
  • "Shy" Trump voters also played a part, as one Dem pollster told Politico, "There's a small group of people who knew that, at some level, they didn't want their support for Trump to be scrutinized."
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