Jan 5, 2017

A quick guide to Obamacare repeal math (warning: includes math)

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a respected group of budget hawks, is out with its own estimate of the cost of repealing Obamacare. It has lots of different scenarios — full repeal, partial repeal — and is kind of hard to follow.

The key numbers:

  1. If they repeal everything (unlikely): Costs $350 billion over 10 years
  2. If they just repeal the coverage provisions (unlikely): Saves $1.6 trillion over 10 years
  3. If they repeal the coverage and taxes, but keep the Medicare payment cuts (more likely): Saves $750 billion over 10 years
  4. The group says repeal would increase the uninsured by 23 million.

Takeaway: The Medicare payment cuts are important to this. That's one reason House Speaker Paul Ryan's repeal plans always kept the savings.

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